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BUY NO edge: +19.0% (Buying NO @ $0.74, +EV ROI: +25.6%).","edge":0.1905,"model_prob":0.9603,"forecast_mean":72.48,"forecast_std":3.0,"metadata":{"kelly_fraction":0.25,"full_kelly":0.3735,"potential_payout":68,"fees_paid":0.88,"entry_fee":0.88,"liquidity":113.51,"market_phase":"FUTURE_DATE","bucket":null,"entry_market_price_yes":0.255,"calib_market_prob":0.745,"calib_shrunk_prob":0.8402,"calib_shrunk_weight":0.5,"calib_shrunk_edge":0.0821,"city_group":"expansion","forecast_member_count":1320,"forecast_degraded":false,"model_prob_blended":0.9535,"climo_prob_yes":0.0707,"google_prob_yes":null,"google_prob_pick":null,"forecast_google":null,"metno_prob_yes":0.0808,"metno_prob_pick":0.9192,"forecast_metno":72.32,"pirate_prob_yes":null,"pirate_prob_pick":null,"forecast_pirate":null,"fill_model":"book_vwap","fill_source":"kalshi_rest","fill_mid_price":0.745,"fill_vwap":0.7581,"fill_touch":0.75,"fill_slip":0.0131,"fill_target_shares":68,"fill_shares":68,"fill_unfilled":0,"fill_limit":0.78,"route_id":"73b51a1401","route_leg":1,"route_legs":1,"route_target_shares":68,"route_venues":["kalshi"],"route_all_in":0.7629,"route_preview_vwap":0.7581,"entry_bid_yes":0.25,"entry_ask_yes":0.26,"entry_spread_yes":0.01,"entry_exec_touch":0.75,"entry_exec_vwap":0.7581,"entry_unfilled":0,"entry_slip_touch":0.005,"entry_slip_vwap":0.0131,"entry_extra_cost":0.89,"entry_source":"kalshi_rest","strike_low":76,"strike_high":78,"bracket_label":"76° to 77°F","settlement_station":"KOKC","platform":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhightokc/oklahoma-city-maximum-high-temperature/kxhightokc-26oct20","comparator":"bracket"}},{"strike_low":60,"strike_high":62,"bracket_label":"60° to 61°F","settlement_station":"KLAS","platform":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlowtlv/las-vegas-daily-low-temperature/kxlowtlv-26oct19","comparator":"bracket","fees_paid":0.33,"id":"pos_af586a41","market_id":"kalshi_kxlowtlv-26oct19-b60.5","market_title":"Las Vegas (Harry Reid) Low Temp: 60° to 61°F on Oct 19, 2026","city":"Las Vegas","metric":"temperature_min","strike":60.0,"unit":"fahrenheit","target_date":"2026-10-19","side":"NO","shares":26,"entry_price":0.7696,"current_price":1.0,"cost_basis":20.01,"current_value":26.0,"unrealized_pnl":5.66,"unrealized_pnl_pct":28.29,"entry_time":"2026-10-19T05:31:26.733627+00:00","rationale":"Ensemble mean 63.9°F (σ=±3.0) projects only 4.7% probability for bracket [60° to 61°F], while Kalshi retail overpriced YES at 26.5%. BUY NO edge: +21.8% (Buying NO @ $0.73, +EV ROI: +29.6%).","edge":0.2178,"model_prob":1.0,"forecast_mean":63.92,"forecast_std":3.0,"metadata":{"kelly_fraction":0.25,"full_kelly":0.4109,"potential_payout":26,"fees_paid":0.33,"entry_fee":0.33,"liquidity":234.16,"market_phase":"FUTURE_DATE","bucket":null,"entry_market_price_yes":0.265,"calib_market_prob":0.735,"calib_shrunk_prob":0.8439,"calib_shrunk_weight":0.5,"calib_shrunk_edge":0.0743,"city_group":"expansion","forecast_member_count":1320,"forecast_degraded":false,"model_prob_blended":0.9684,"climo_prob_yes":0.1435,"google_prob_yes":null,"google_prob_pick":null,"forecast_google":null,"metno_prob_yes":0.2261,"metno_prob_pick":0.7739,"forecast_metno":59.36,"pirate_prob_yes":0.127,"pirate_prob_pick":0.873,"forecast_pirate":64.67,"fill_model":"book_vwap","fill_source":"kalshi_rest","fill_mid_price":0.735,"fill_vwap":0.7696,"fill_touch":0.76,"fill_slip":0.0346,"fill_target_shares":26,"fill_shares":26,"fill_unfilled":0,"fill_limit":0.79,"route_id":"2b3309f976","route_leg":1,"route_legs":1,"route_target_shares":59,"route_venues":["kalshi"],"route_all_in":0.7727,"route_preview_vwap":0.7696,"entry_bid_yes":0.24,"entry_ask_yes":0.29,"entry_spread_yes":0.05,"entry_exec_touch":0.76,"entry_exec_vwap":0.7696,"entry_unfilled":0,"entry_slip_touch":0.025,"entry_slip_vwap":0.0346,"entry_extra_cost":0.9,"entry_source":"kalshi_rest","strike_low":60,"strike_high":62,"bracket_label":"60° to 61°F","settlement_station":"KLAS","platform":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlowtlv/las-vegas-daily-low-temperature/kxlowtlv-26oct19","comparator":"bracket"},"mark_prob_win":0.562,"mark_synthetic":true,"mark_projection":"projected-hit"},{"strike_low":41,"strike_high":43,"bracket_label":"41° to 42°F","settlement_station":"KPHL","platform":"Kalshi","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlowtphil/lowest-temperature-in-philadelphia/kxlowtphil-26oct19","comparator":"bracket","fees_paid":0.56,"id":"pos_5dbd0d68","market_id":"kalshi_kxlowtphil-26oct19-b41.5","market_title":"Philadelphia International Low Temp: 41° to 42°F on Oct 19, 2026","city":"Philadelphia","metric":"temperature_min","strike":41.0,"unit":"fahrenheit","target_date":"2026-10-19","side":"NO","shares":50,"entry_price":0.8038,"current_price":0.0,"cost_basis":40.19,"current_value":0.0,"unrealized_pnl":-40.75,"unrealized_pnl_pct":-101.39,"entry_time":"2026-10-19T02:39:16.650309+00:00","rationale":"Ensemble mean 44.7°F (σ=±3.0) projects only 3.1% probability for bracket [41° to 42°F], while Kalshi retail overpriced YES at 21.0%. 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